COT tape — 2026-09-15

Commitments of traders · weekly tape

4 divergences

market	specs	hedgers
natgas-henryhublegacy	`+0.6707`	`-0.6730`
natgas-henryhubdisagg	`-0.0148`	`+0.0127`
goldlegacy	`+0.5619`	`-0.6385`
golddisagg	`+0.3248`	`-0.0685`
cornlegacy	`+0.2942`	`-0.2586`
corndisagg	`+0.2248`	`-0.4178`
silverlegacy	`+0.2441`	`-0.4116`
silverdisagg	`+0.1265`	`-0.1673`
ust10ylegacy	`-0.1527`	`+0.1533`
ust10ytff	`-0.3474`	`-0.1338`
copperlegacy	`+0.2596`	`-0.2915`
copperdisagg	`+0.2249`	`-0.3386`
jpylegacy	`+0.2217`	`-0.2297`
jpytff	`+0.0427`	`-0.3106`
sp500legacy	`-0.0411`	`+0.0038`
sp500tff	`-0.1198`	`-0.2873`
soybeanslegacy	`+0.2364`	`-0.2159`
soybeansdisagg	`+0.2186`	`-0.2827`
eurofxlegacy	`-0.0293`	`+0.0002`
eurofxtff	`-0.0306`	`-0.2805`
bitcoinlegacy	`-0.1927`	`+0.1064`
bitcointff	`-0.2265`	`-0.0555`
nasdaq100legacy	`+0.0942`	`-0.1275`
nasdaq100tff	`-0.0377`	`-0.2022`
vixlegacy	`-0.1941`	`+0.1838`
vixtff	`-0.0370`	`+0.1408`
crude-wtilegacy	`+0.0695`	`-0.0843`
crude-wtidisagg	`+0.0543`	`+0.1572`

Status: 4 divergence(s), 0 check failure(s) · 14 markets · week 2026-09-15

AI brief

What changed

This baseline week shows the most extreme net positions on record. Speculators are long natgas‑henryhub legacy +67.1% and gold legacy +56.2%, while short‑most positions are ust10y tff ‑34.7%, bitcoin tff ‑22.6% and vix legacy ‑19.4%. Hedgers are long vix legacy +18.4%, crude‑wti disagg +15.7% and ust10y legacy +15.3%, but heavily short natgas‑henryhub legacy ‑67.3%, gold legacy ‑63.9% and corn disagg ‑41.8%. Both natgas‑henryhub and gold have speculator and hedger positions stretched beyond ±50%.

Where views disagree

Four families show opposite pressure signals: crude‑wti hedge pressure (legacy ‑8.4% vs. disagg +15.7%); nasdaq100 spec pressure (legacy +9.4% vs. tff ‑3.8%); ust10y hedge pressure (legacy +15.3% vs. tff ‑13.4%); bitcoin hedge pressure (legacy +10.6% vs. tff ‑5.5%).

What to watch

Monitor price moves in natgas‑henryhub and gold, where net positions exceed ±60%. Watch the markets with divergent pressure—crude‑wti, nasdaq100, ust10y and bitcoin—for early signs of a shift in trader sentiment.

Largest speculator longs

natgas-henryhub (legacy): +67.1%
gold (legacy): +56.2%
gold (disagg): +32.5%

Largest speculator shorts

ust10y (tff): -34.7%
bitcoin (tff): -22.6%
vix (legacy): -19.4%

Largest hedger longs / shorts

vix (legacy): +18.4%
crude-wti (disagg): +15.7%
ust10y (legacy): +15.3%
natgas-henryhub (legacy): -67.3%
gold (legacy): -63.9%
corn (disagg): -41.8%

Stretched beyond ±50%

natgas-henryhub (legacy) hedge: -67.3%
natgas-henryhub (legacy) spec: +67.1%
gold (legacy) hedge: -63.9%
gold (legacy) spec: +56.2%

Week over week

Baseline week: not enough history for changes yet.

Alarms — read before trading off this tape

crude-wti hedge_pressure: views disagree on direction (legacy -8.4%, disagg +15.7%).
nasdaq100 spec_pressure: views disagree on direction (legacy +9.4%, tff -3.8%).
ust10y hedge_pressure: views disagree on direction (legacy +15.3%, tff -13.4%).
bitcoin hedge_pressure: views disagree on direction (legacy +10.6%, tff -5.5%).

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