COT tape — 2026-09-29

Commitments of traders · weekly tape

7 divergences

market	specs	hedgers
natgas-henryhublegacy	`+0.6714`	`-0.6735`
natgas-henryhubdisagg	`-0.0141`	`+0.0025`
goldlegacy	`+0.5379`	`-0.6175`
golddisagg	`+0.2960`	`-0.0523`
bitcoinlegacy	`-0.2166`	`+0.0587`
bitcointff	`-0.4316`	`+0.0319`
cornlegacy	`+0.2743`	`-0.2415`
corndisagg	`+0.2053`	`-0.3946`
silverlegacy	`+0.2063`	`-0.3738`
silverdisagg	`+0.0711`	`-0.1543`
ust10ylegacy	`-0.1587`	`+0.1501`
ust10ytff	`-0.3587`	`-0.1298`
copperlegacy	`+0.2836`	`-0.3149`
copperdisagg	`+0.2592`	`-0.3464`
sp500legacy	`-0.0752`	`+0.0186`
sp500tff	`-0.1965`	`-0.3202`
soybeanslegacy	`+0.2356`	`-0.2137`
soybeansdisagg	`+0.2262`	`-0.2670`
eurofxlegacy	`-0.0741`	`+0.0475`
eurofxtff	`-0.0460`	`-0.2484`
jpylegacy	`+0.1537`	`-0.1552`
jpytff	`-0.0393`	`-0.2404`
nasdaq100legacy	`+0.1599`	`-0.2098`
nasdaq100tff	`-0.1190`	`-0.1901`
vixlegacy	`-0.1890`	`+0.1851`
vixtff	`-0.0177`	`+0.1661`
crude-wtilegacy	`+0.0583`	`-0.0759`
crude-wtidisagg	`+0.0424`	`+0.1701`

Status: 7 divergence(s), 0 check failure(s) · 14 markets · week 2026-09-29

Largest speculator longs

natgas-henryhub (legacy): +67.1%
gold (legacy): +53.8%
gold (disagg): +29.6%

Largest speculator shorts

bitcoin (tff): -43.2%
ust10y (tff): -35.9%
bitcoin (legacy): -21.7%

Largest hedger longs / shorts

vix (legacy): +18.5%
crude-wti (disagg): +17.0%
vix (tff): +16.6%
natgas-henryhub (legacy): -67.4%
gold (legacy): -61.7%
corn (disagg): -39.5%

Stretched beyond ±50%

natgas-henryhub (legacy) hedge: -67.4%
natgas-henryhub (legacy) spec: +67.1%
gold (legacy) hedge: -61.7%
gold (legacy) spec: +53.8%

Biggest week-over-week moves

bitcoin (tff): spec -25.9%, hedge +14.7%
jpy (tff): spec -5.9%, hedge +4.6%
silver (disagg): spec -5.4%, hedge +2.0%
bitcoin (legacy): spec -4.7%, hedge +1.4%
jpy (legacy): spec -3.6%, hedge +4.7%

Alarms — read before trading off this tape

crude-wti hedge_pressure: views disagree on direction (legacy -7.6%, disagg +17.0%).
nasdaq100 spec_pressure: views disagree on direction (legacy +16.0%, tff -11.9%).
eurofx hedge_pressure: views disagree on direction (legacy +4.8%, tff -24.8%).
jpy spec_pressure: views disagree on direction (legacy +15.4%, tff -3.9%).
ust10y hedge_pressure: views disagree on direction (legacy +15.0%, tff -13.0%).
jpy spec_pressure: tff flipped sign while other views did not (now {'legacy': 0.153693, 'tff': -0.039258}) — possible reclassification.
bitcoin hedge_pressure: tff flipped sign while other views did not (now {'legacy': 0.058701, 'tff': 0.031877}) — possible reclassification.

download summary.md

No resolved calls yet — first resolutions land next week. 32 call(s) pending.

This week’s calls (fade crowded specs, 2026-09-29)

market	predicted price move	spec pressure
bitcoin	up	-21.66%
copper	down	+28.36%
corn	down	+27.43%
gold	down	+53.79%
jpy	down	+15.37%
nasdaq100	down	+15.99%
natgas-henryhub	down	+67.14%
silver	down	+20.63%
soybeans	down	+23.56%
ust10y	up	-15.87%
vix	up	-18.90%

Track record by market

market	hits/calls	rate
Nothing resolved yet.

Experimental contrarian rule: spec > +15% → predict down, < −15% → predict up, else neutral. Tue–Tue closes via Yahoo Finance. Not financial advice.

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download cot_assertions.csv