COT tape — 2026-10-06

Commitments of traders · weekly tape

5 divergences

market	specs	hedgers
natgas-henryhublegacy	`+0.6587`	`-0.6608`
natgas-henryhubdisagg	`-0.0139`	`+0.0089`
goldlegacy	`+0.5310`	`-0.6173`
golddisagg	`+0.2802`	`-0.0492`
bitcoinlegacy	`-0.1673`	`+0.0262`
bitcointff	`-0.4750`	`+0.1065`
silverlegacy	`+0.2202`	`-0.3956`
silverdisagg	`+0.0716`	`-0.1546`
ust10ylegacy	`-0.1561`	`+0.1515`
ust10ytff	`-0.3726`	`-0.1118`
cornlegacy	`+0.2433`	`-0.2209`
corndisagg	`+0.1773`	`-0.3701`
sp500legacy	`-0.0797`	`+0.0223`
sp500tff	`-0.2148`	`-0.3110`
copperlegacy	`+0.2284`	`-0.2563`
copperdisagg	`+0.2011`	`-0.3050`
soybeanslegacy	`+0.2443`	`-0.2230`
soybeansdisagg	`+0.2301`	`-0.2780`
nasdaq100legacy	`+0.1818`	`-0.2257`
nasdaq100tff	`-0.0898`	`-0.2311`
jpylegacy	`+0.1693`	`-0.1677`
jpytff	`-0.0680`	`-0.2306`
vixlegacy	`-0.2069`	`+0.2053`
vixtff	`+0.0125`	`+0.1625`
eurofxlegacy	`-0.1141`	`+0.0828`
eurofxtff	`-0.0509`	`-0.2028`
crude-wtilegacy	`+0.0524`	`-0.0669`
crude-wtidisagg	`+0.0284`	`+0.1773`

Status: 5 divergence(s), 0 check failure(s) · 14 markets · week 2026-10-06

AI brief

What changed

Speculators trimmed Bitcoin TFF net short by 4.3% and added a 4.9% long in Bitcoin legacy. Copper legacy speculators fell 5.5% while their hedge rose 5.9%; copper disagg spec fell 5.8% and its hedge rose 4.1%. Euro‑FX speculators slipped 0.5% and the hedge gained 4.6%. The largest net‑long spec positions remain Nat Gas‑Henry Hub legacy +65.9%, Gold legacy +53.1% and Gold disagg +28.0%. The biggest net‑shorts are Bitcoin TFF ‑47.5%, UST 10‑yr TFF ‑37.3% and S&P 500 TFF ‑21.5%.

Where views disagree

Crude‑WTI hedge pressure shows opposite signs: legacy ‑6.7% versus disagg +17.7%. Nasdaq‑100 spec pressure diverges with legacy +18.2% against TFF ‑9.0%. Euro‑FX hedge pressure is legacy +8.3% versus TFF ‑20.3%. JPY spec pressure is legacy +16.9% versus TFF ‑6.8%. UST 10‑yr hedge pressure is legacy +15.1% versus TFF ‑11.2%.

What to watch

Both Nat Gas‑Henry Hub legacy spec (+65.9%) and hedge (‑66.1%) are stretched beyond ±50%, as are Gold legacy spec (+53.1%) and hedge (‑61.7%). These extreme opposite positions could prompt rapid rebalancing if price moves intensify. Monitor the divergent crude‑WTI and Euro‑FX hedge signals for early signs of shifting sentiment.

Largest speculator longs

natgas-henryhub (legacy): +65.9%
gold (legacy): +53.1%
gold (disagg): +28.0%

Largest speculator shorts

bitcoin (tff): -47.5%
ust10y (tff): -37.3%
sp500 (tff): -21.5%

Largest hedger longs / shorts

vix (legacy): +20.5%
crude-wti (disagg): +17.7%
vix (tff): +16.3%
natgas-henryhub (legacy): -66.1%
gold (legacy): -61.7%
silver (legacy): -39.6%

Stretched beyond ±50%

natgas-henryhub (legacy) hedge: -66.1%
natgas-henryhub (legacy) spec: +65.9%
gold (legacy) hedge: -61.7%
gold (legacy) spec: +53.1%

Biggest week-over-week moves

bitcoin (tff): spec -4.3%, hedge +7.5%
copper (legacy): spec -5.5%, hedge +5.9%
copper (disagg): spec -5.8%, hedge +4.1%
bitcoin (legacy): spec +4.9%, hedge -3.3%
eurofx (tff): spec -0.5%, hedge +4.6%

Alarms — read before trading off this tape

crude-wti hedge_pressure: views disagree on direction (legacy -6.7%, disagg +17.7%).
nasdaq100 spec_pressure: views disagree on direction (legacy +18.2%, tff -9.0%).
eurofx hedge_pressure: views disagree on direction (legacy +8.3%, tff -20.3%).
jpy spec_pressure: views disagree on direction (legacy +16.9%, tff -6.8%).
ust10y hedge_pressure: views disagree on direction (legacy +15.1%, tff -11.2%).

download summary.md

No resolved calls yet — first resolutions land next week. 43 call(s) pending.

This week’s calls (fade crowded specs, 2026-10-06)

market	predicted price move	spec pressure
bitcoin	up	-16.73%
copper	down	+22.84%
corn	down	+24.33%
gold	down	+53.10%
jpy	down	+16.93%
nasdaq100	down	+18.18%
natgas-henryhub	down	+65.87%
silver	down	+22.02%
soybeans	down	+24.43%
ust10y	up	-15.61%
vix	up	-20.69%