COT tape — 2026-09-22

Commitments of traders · weekly tape

7 divergences

market	specs	hedgers
natgas-henryhublegacy	`+0.6628`	`-0.6612`
natgas-henryhubdisagg	`-0.0146`	`+0.0192`
goldlegacy	`+0.5471`	`-0.6369`
golddisagg	`+0.3086`	`-0.0649`
silverlegacy	`+0.2390`	`-0.4203`
silverdisagg	`+0.1250`	`-0.1739`
cornlegacy	`+0.2889`	`-0.2560`
corndisagg	`+0.2179`	`-0.4171`
copperlegacy	`+0.3001`	`-0.3329`
copperdisagg	`+0.2736`	`-0.3732`
ust10ylegacy	`-0.1501`	`+0.1528`
ust10ytff	`-0.3563`	`-0.1074`
sp500legacy	`-0.0705`	`+0.0153`
sp500tff	`-0.1986`	`-0.3354`
soybeanslegacy	`+0.2527`	`-0.2311`
soybeansdisagg	`+0.2380`	`-0.2892`
jpylegacy	`+0.1901`	`-0.2018`
jpytff	`+0.0196`	`-0.2859`
eurofxlegacy	`-0.0637`	`+0.0353`
eurofxtff	`-0.0325`	`-0.2689`
nasdaq100legacy	`+0.1755`	`-0.2090`
nasdaq100tff	`-0.1196`	`-0.1837`
vixlegacy	`-0.1923`	`+0.1870`
vixtff	`-0.0364`	`+0.1624`
bitcoinlegacy	`-0.1693`	`+0.0444`
bitcointff	`-0.1729`	`-0.1146`
crude-wtilegacy	`+0.0766`	`-0.0922`
crude-wtidisagg	`+0.0553`	`+0.1645`

Status: 7 divergence(s), 0 check failure(s) · 14 markets · week 2026-09-22

Largest speculator longs

natgas-henryhub (legacy): +66.3%
gold (legacy): +54.7%
gold (disagg): +30.9%

Largest speculator shorts

ust10y (tff): -35.6%
sp500 (tff): -19.9%
vix (legacy): -19.2%

Largest hedger longs / shorts

vix (legacy): +18.7%
crude-wti (disagg): +16.4%
vix (tff): +16.2%
natgas-henryhub (legacy): -66.1%
gold (legacy): -63.7%
silver (legacy): -42.0%

Stretched beyond ±50%

natgas-henryhub (legacy) spec: +66.3%
natgas-henryhub (legacy) hedge: -66.1%
gold (legacy) hedge: -63.7%
gold (legacy) spec: +54.7%

Biggest week-over-week moves

nasdaq100 (tff): spec -8.2%, hedge +1.9%
nasdaq100 (legacy): spec +8.1%, hedge -8.1%
sp500 (tff): spec -7.9%, hedge -4.8%
bitcoin (legacy): spec +2.3%, hedge -6.2%
bitcoin (tff): spec +5.4%, hedge -5.9%

Alarms — read before trading off this tape

crude-wti hedge_pressure: views disagree on direction (legacy -9.2%, disagg +16.4%).
nasdaq100 spec_pressure: views disagree on direction (legacy +17.5%, tff -12.0%).
eurofx hedge_pressure: views disagree on direction (legacy +3.5%, tff -26.9%).
ust10y hedge_pressure: views disagree on direction (legacy +15.3%, tff -10.7%).
bitcoin hedge_pressure: views disagree on direction (legacy +4.4%, tff -11.5%).
eurofx spec_pressure: legacy flipped sign while other views did not (now {'legacy': -0.063691, 'tff': -0.032487}) — possible reclassification.
eurofx hedge_pressure: legacy flipped sign while other views did not (now {'legacy': 0.035253, 'tff': -0.2689}) — possible reclassification.

download summary.md

No resolved calls yet — first resolutions land next week. 21 call(s) pending.

This week’s calls (fade crowded specs, 2026-09-22)

market	predicted price move	spec pressure
bitcoin	up	-16.93%
copper	down	+30.01%
corn	down	+28.89%
gold	down	+54.71%
jpy	down	+19.01%
nasdaq100	down	+17.55%
natgas-henryhub	down	+66.28%
silver	down	+23.90%
soybeans	down	+25.27%
ust10y	up	-15.01%
vix	up	-19.23%

Track record by market

market	hits/calls	rate
Nothing resolved yet.

Experimental contrarian rule: spec > +15% → predict down, < −15% → predict up, else neutral. Tue–Tue closes via Yahoo Finance. Not financial advice.

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download cot_assertions.csv