COT tape — 2026-10-13

Commitments of traders · weekly tape

5 divergences

market	specs	hedgers
natgas-henryhublegacy	`+0.6578`	`-0.6600`
natgas-henryhubdisagg	`-0.0138`	`+0.0093`
goldlegacy	`+0.5245`	`-0.6119`
golddisagg	`+0.2702`	`-0.0465`
bitcoinlegacy	`-0.1629`	`+0.0227`
bitcointff	`-0.4225`	`+0.1186`
ust10ylegacy	`-0.1698`	`+0.1620`
ust10ytff	`-0.3791`	`-0.1087`
silverlegacy	`+0.2087`	`-0.3637`
silverdisagg	`+0.0518`	`-0.1457`
cornlegacy	`+0.1942`	`-0.1772`
corndisagg	`+0.1335`	`-0.3254`
sp500legacy	`-0.0730`	`+0.0179`
sp500tff	`-0.2116`	`-0.3118`
copperlegacy	`+0.2183`	`-0.2442`
copperdisagg	`+0.1946`	`-0.2883`
soybeanslegacy	`+0.2528`	`-0.2292`
soybeansdisagg	`+0.2330`	`-0.2826`
nasdaq100legacy	`+0.1436`	`-0.1994`
nasdaq100tff	`-0.0743`	`-0.2504`
vixlegacy	`-0.2151`	`+0.2078`
vixtff	`+0.0025`	`+0.1562`
jpylegacy	`+0.1344`	`-0.1301`
jpytff	`-0.0902`	`-0.1976`
eurofxlegacy	`-0.1573`	`+0.1272`
eurofxtff	`-0.0778`	`-0.1884`
crude-wtilegacy	`+0.0528`	`-0.0660`
crude-wtidisagg	`+0.0214`	`+0.1858`

Status: 5 divergence(s), 0 check failure(s) · 14 markets · week 2026-10-13

Largest speculator longs

natgas-henryhub (legacy): +65.8%
gold (legacy): +52.4%
gold (disagg): +27.0%

Largest speculator shorts

bitcoin (tff): -42.3%
ust10y (tff): -37.9%
vix (legacy): -21.5%

Largest hedger longs / shorts

vix (legacy): +20.8%
crude-wti (disagg): +18.6%
ust10y (legacy): +16.2%
natgas-henryhub (legacy): -66.0%
gold (legacy): -61.2%
silver (legacy): -36.4%

Stretched beyond ±50%

natgas-henryhub (legacy) hedge: -66.0%
natgas-henryhub (legacy) spec: +65.8%
gold (legacy) hedge: -61.2%
gold (legacy) spec: +52.4%

Biggest week-over-week moves

bitcoin (tff): spec +5.2%, hedge +1.2%
corn (legacy): spec -4.9%, hedge +4.4%
corn (disagg): spec -4.4%, hedge +4.5%
eurofx (legacy): spec -4.3%, hedge +4.4%
nasdaq100 (legacy): spec -3.8%, hedge +2.6%

Alarms — read before trading off this tape

crude-wti hedge_pressure: views disagree on direction (legacy -6.6%, disagg +18.6%).
nasdaq100 spec_pressure: views disagree on direction (legacy +14.4%, tff -7.4%).
eurofx hedge_pressure: views disagree on direction (legacy +12.7%, tff -18.8%).
jpy spec_pressure: views disagree on direction (legacy +13.4%, tff -9.0%).
ust10y hedge_pressure: views disagree on direction (legacy +16.2%, tff -10.9%).

download summary.md

No resolved calls yet — first resolutions land next week. 53 call(s) pending.

This week’s calls (fade crowded specs, 2026-10-13)

market	predicted price move	spec pressure
bitcoin	up	-16.29%
copper	down	+21.83%
corn	down	+19.42%
eurofx	up	-15.73%
gold	down	+52.45%
natgas-henryhub	down	+65.78%
silver	down	+20.87%
soybeans	down	+25.28%
ust10y	up	-16.98%
vix	up	-21.51%

Track record by market

market	hits/calls	rate
Nothing resolved yet.

Experimental contrarian rule: spec > +15% → predict down, < −15% → predict up, else neutral. Tue–Tue closes via Yahoo Finance. Not financial advice.

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